A Momentum Analysis poll shows Judy Baker with a slim 41% to 39% lead over Blaine Luetkemeyer for the MO-09 open House seat.

Baker has a 30% favorability to 8% unfavorabilty rating and has higher favorability than unfavorability even among Republican voters (especially Republican women).

Luetkemeyer's favorability is 33% to 16% unfaovarbility.

This is a District that was Bush +19 in 2004 and that the Republican Hulshof won 61% to 36% in 2006.

The poll was an internal Democratic poll conducted by Momentum Analysis. In the primaries Momentum analysis gave Baker a 6 point lead over Gaw in their only internal poll of the primary (she won by 13 in that race).

Full poll story here:

http://blogs.columbiatribune.c...

Donate to Baker at My ActBlue and I'll match you (the first $400).

http://www.actblue.com/...

While DailyKos is a key stronghold in the netroots movement, it must be admitted that using the internet has certain, tangible limits in terms of voter outreach. Many demographics, primarily the higher age groups that vote strongly for McCain, still largely get their news from newspapers.

Given the amount of writing talent available in the blogging community, it seems logical that this would be a good place to find quality letter-writers. Many newspapers in key swing states have circulations in the hundreds of thousands.

Interested in helping the cause? Oodles of info below the fold.

No, I am not the "Log Cabin Republican". A friend forwarded his message about a trip to the dentist office in Texarkana.  The staff were all talking about totally crazy stuff and even the dentist told the patient that Obama was a Muslim, etc.

Texarkana is a city on the border with Arkansas.  

In 1992 and 1996, Bill Clinton won the tier of states from Minnesota to
Louisiana, including of course the states of Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.  These states were lost in 2000 and 2004 by fairly large margins.  Gore barely won Iowa in 2000.  And we Democrats are in serious trouble if Minnesota is in play.

Anyway, I am passing on these points by the LCR, edited for brevity.

The Missouri State Fair is underway in Sedalia, Missouri. So come listen to the music, watch some events, and indulge in some deep-fried item you'd never eat on a normal weekend.

But more importantly, my son has landed a spot working for the Obama campaign in the deep red zone, and he could use some help this weekend.

Pettis County, where Sedalia is located, went for Bush by more than 2-1 over both Kerry and Gore, but the Obama campaign is convinced there is support to be had in the area.  My son is the lucky organizer who is out there shaking hands and looking for help. This weekend he's canvassing around the town of Sedalia and with a lot of folks busy at the fair, he could really use some extra hands.

So what do you say? For once, it's not going to be insanely hot, and you can always satisfy that cotton candy craving with a quick stop at the fairgrounds.

His office -- which isn't blessed with high tech items like the Internet, or a phone -- is located right in the middle of Sedalia. Will I see you there?

Cross-posted at Project Vote's blog, Voting Matters

Weekly Voting Rights News Update

By Erin Ferns and Nathan Henderson-James

We spend a lot of time in these news updates showing how charges of voter fraud are used to discredit voter participation efforts and prime the pump for voter suppression efforts, such as the passage of voter ID bills, pushing for proof of citizenship, engaging in draconian voter purge efforts, and imposing sever restrictions on voter registration drives. We have also spent a lot of time carefully delineating the politics behind these efforts, starting with our March 2007 report The Politics Of Voter Fraud and continuing on in these diaries to name but two venues.

Today a Missouri grand jury indicted Republican State Representative Scott Muschany for raping a fourteen year old girl in May of this year.  The child is the daughter of a Missouri State employee with whom the married Muschany was "romantically involved".

According to the article in today's St. Louis Post Dispatch, the child's mother witnessed the assault.

The child's parents are estranged, and the father is suing for custody of his daughter.

The girl’s father told the Post-Dispatch that his daughter told a sibling about the alleged assault a few days after it happened, and the sibling told the father on May 26, the father said. He called the child abuse hotline the next day.

...

The girl’s 17-year-old brother told the Post-Dispatch his mother told him she has known Muschany for about two years and that they had been seeing each other romantically for about a year.

This isn't just another Republican "sex scandal" - it's the forcible rape of a child, which the mother witnessed but did not bother to report to the police.

This is a cross post from DU:

http://www.democraticunderground.com...

In sum- he went to vote, but the judges refused to accept an approved form of ID, and refused to read a copy of the state voter ID requirements the voter took with him-----

The Senate race in Georgia, once left for dead, just got a lot more interesting, as former state Rep. Jim Martin has won the Democratic primary runoff against DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones.

DSCC Chairman Chuck Schumer on Martin's victory:

“Georgians chose an impressive candidate today who has the experience and vision to change the direction of our nation. As a public servant under both a Democratic and a Republican Governor, Jim has a proven record of working across party lines, and he will be an effective and independent voice for Georgia families. This is a winnable race.”

With 97% of districts reporting, Martin leads 60% to 40%. That's a commanding victory which should inspire confidence in Martin's candidacy for the general election, in which he faces a tough but viable battle against incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss. Martin is a candidate we can be proud of as progressives and Democrats, and he will be a serious and legitimate challenger to the senior Senator.

In Missouri:  The Republican nomination for Governor of Missouri has gone to U.S. Rep. Kenny Hulshof, who will face off against the favorite, Missouri's Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon, in the general election.

Meanwhile, in Hulshof's old district, Blaine Luetkemeyer haswon the Republican nomination for MO-09, edging out state Rep. Bob Onder.

If you're curious, Brock Olivo finished a distant fourth, with 10% of the vote.

On the Democratic side, the AP has not called the race, but with 90% of the vote in, state Rep. Judy Baker has a 9-point lead over former Missouri House Speaker Steve Gaw, 42% to 33%. It will be extremely difficult for Gaw to win this race. If Baker is the candidate, it should prove to be an exciting and high-profile race between herself and Luetkemeyer.

In Kansas, the big news is that Phill Kline has lost his race:

Steve Howe defeated incumbent Phill Kline Tuesday night for the Republican nomination for district attorney in Johnson County, Kansas.

Howe collected 60 percent of the vote to Kline's 40 percent, according to complete but unofficial returns. He'll face Democrat Rick Guinn in November.

About 22.5 percent of registered voters turned out in Johnson County, the election office reported.

Kline made his reputation seeking to prosecute abortion providers in Kansas as the state's attorney general. He lost his bid for re-election in 2006 after the Kansas Supreme Court overturned his subpoenas for abortion records.

In the U.S. House race in the Second District, where former Rep Jim Ryun faces off against State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins for the right to do battle with Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda, the race is too close to call. Jenkins leads by 2% with 93% of precincts reporting, but the AP has yet to call the race.

Finally, in Michigan, more of the same in Michigan's 13th District. Rep Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick faced the toughest challenge of her life, and leads state Rep. Mary Waters by just over a hundred votes at this juncture. It should remain too close to call until the morning.

These aren't the highest-profile races on the national radar, but as Scout Finch wrote yesterday, there are some critical primary races in Missouri and Kansas which will be decided this evening.

We'll have the results once the races are decided tonight.

The biggest of the races is the Republican primary for Governor of Missouri, a two-person race between U.S. Rep Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

The presumptive Democratic nominee is Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon, who has consistently led both Hulshof and Steelman in independent polling.

Hulshof has had the edge over Steelman so far in the primary race, despite Steelman's statewide profile. The last SurveyUSA poll showed him leading Steelman, 45% to 33%.

The other key races in Missouri are the primary battles for the open seats left by Hulshof, Steelman and Nixon.

For Hulshof's House seat, there is a celebrated Republican battle between frontrunners Bob Onder and Blaine Luetkemeyer, and fellow Republicans Danie Moore and my main man Brock Olivo.

Onder is backed by the Club for Growth; he and Luetkemeyer have had an ugly primary so far, and it's the fervent hope of some Democrats that they could split the vote to the extent that Olivo or Moore could sneak in and win the nomination. This is highly unlikely, but would make for high comedy.

On the Democratic side, there are four serious candidates, as the St. Louis Post-Dispatch noted (as opposed to no quality candidatess on the GOP side). The frontrunners are Rep. Judy Baker and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw.

Jay Nixon's job as Attorney General, meanwhile, is contested by three Democrats; state Reps. Margaret Donnelly and Jeff Harris, and State Senator (and former Republican) Chris Koster.  From the Post-Dispatch:

Harris and Donnelly have spent much of their campaign questioning the Democratic credentials of Koster, a state senator from Raymore, who switched parties about this time last year.

Koster, meanwhile, has raised more money than the other two and produced slick television ads pushing his experience as a prosecutor.

Meanwhile, four Democrats square off in the State Treasurer's race, for the right to do battle with the awesomely named GOP state Rep. Brad Lager.

Finally, over in Kansas, there's a high-profile Republican race today for Johnson County District Attorney, where Steve Howe faces off against the one and only Phill Kline.

Of Kline, no one puts it better than Scout Finch:

Phill Kline.  Intolerant, wingnut, asshat extraordinaire in Johnson County, Kansas. The same Phill Kline that had been harassing women's clinics in Kansas and was defeated in the 2006 election for Kansas Attorney General. After his crushing defeat, the Kansas GOP stubbornly appointed him to the recently vacated Johnson County District Attorney position.  At the time, he promised that he would not seek re-election. Being the honorable man that he is, he recently filed for......re-election. He now faces Steve Howe in a Republican primary. Incidentally, Steve Howe and the rest of the experienced attorneys in the DA's office were unceremoniously fired, without cause, on Phill Kline's first day in office.

SurveyUSA's polling indicates that Steve Howe rates a slight edge in the race, leading Kline 52% to 44%. Here's hoping they've nailed this one. For anyone, even another Republican, has got to be better than Phill Kline, as Scout wrote:

On the way to breakfast Sunday morning, I passed a hand made yard sign that read "Please God --- Anybody but Kline."  Amen, neighbor....Amen.

It's not necessarily customary for us to watch Republican primaries in local races, but for Kline, we will make a special exception.

We'll post the results from all these races, once they are in.

Having a landline I get to find out who the candidates who will go to the lowest depths of negative campaigning to win are.

Missouri in its infinite stupidity does not require robocallers to identify who paid for the calls, but with a little detective work (that most people don't do) you can usually find out who is behind the calls.

Here are the personal negative robocalls I have received in Missouri and who is almost certainly behind them.

The primary election will be held in Missouri tomorrow, and below are all of the state Democratic races which will be on the ballot. Jay Nixon will likely be our next governor, as polls show him handily leading both Sarah Steelman and Kenny Hulshof. Unlike the Hillary/Obama fight, in which there was a certain level of respect that the two candidates had for each other, this is a personal, acrimonious brawl which is melting down the Missouri Republican Party in 2008. The poison which the Republicans normally throw on us is being used on each other to great effect, for instance:

Steelman has an entire website up documenting Kenny Hulshof's misdeeds.

I'm not sure if this has been posted already; or maybe it needs re-posting in light of current events.

But did anyone see/remember this?

Everyone in the media, seemed to go crazy with Barack Obama's comment on the Dollar Bill (more on that later). But does anyone know/remember, that John McCain made a commercial placing Barack's face on a 100 dollar bill, along with other American icons? It was probably one of those trifling web-ads we forgot.

This is akin to the official "Sambo-ism" Of Barack by the McCain camp (they don't need no Stinkin 527). I can't believe (or remember this shit). Maybe I was asleep, or out of town that day.

But I'm sure some of you have seen/remember this. Either way. This story can't be told enough.

How can McCain (or the GOP) claim they don't play "the race card with this ad", but accuse Obama of doing it? They knew.

We'll get into that after the video.

PS: Thanks to a commentator "Mr. Blond" on The Washington Post Website for the find/relay.

Crossposted from Show Me Progress:

On the occasion of Obama's Wednesday swing through Missouri (Rolla, Springfield, and a bbq in Union where he'll flip burgers for the first 200 people to claim the free tickets), Roy Blunt has words of praise for the presumptive Democratic nominee: "'There’s no question Senator Obama is an exciting candidate, with a great delivery.'" Now wait for the "but": BUT Obama "'is not ready to be president.'"

Let me translate that last part for you, in case you're not tuned in to the nuances of racist-speak: "we're not ready for a black president. Heavens to Betsy, Blunt would deny any such accusation, and perhaps I'm oversensitive. After all, Obama has much less experience than John McCain. Much less. So much less that Blunt opines that Barack is "'all style and no substance.'"

ARRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Missouri primary is Tuesday and all week (all month, really) I have been getting phone calls from campaigns.  I know they won't listen to me but I finally have to scream at this and provide some advice to ANYONE who organizes this kind of thing.

Quick summary of question-and-answer segment of the Obama Town Hall meeting in Rolla, Missouri at 3:00 pm Central DST.

There were many problems with the latest Gallup Poll, which has McCain up +4 vs Obama. But now with more information (buried deep into the 9th paragraph of USA Today's own write up), it only gets worse. It's potentially "startlingly" worse

It seems that Gallup according to writer Seth Colter Walls, "committed polling malpractice", when describing polling expert, Prof. Adam Abramowitz analysis, of Gallup/USA today's latest halting revelation.

Gallup fudged the numbers in more ways than we ever thought!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Obama just hit John McCain hard on the economy in a town hall meeting in Springfield, Missouri (note, I'm mixing prepared remarks with paraphrases that I'm watching) and debuts a great new line: "They have nothing new to offer, but they want you to think I'm risky.  This time it's too risky NOT to change."  

My opponent believes we’re on the right course. He’s said our economy has made great progress these past eight years. He’s embraced the Bush economic policies and promises to continue them.

Senator McCain wants to debate taxes, I'm ready.  I just was just reading that Wild Bill Hickock had his first duel right here in Springfield, MO.  Family legend is that Wild Bill is a distant relative of mine (I'm serious).  I don't know if it's true, but it's the legend.  I think it's true because I'm ready to duel John McCain on taxes right here.  

There's more: